Jolyon@jolyon

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Admiral Mark Montgomery on US Navy readiness

Fifteen months is what the US Navy has left before whoever wins the next election takes over a fleet that can't go anywhere. Admiral Mark Montgomery's description of the whole arrangement: three-card monte. Stop the war right away and the ships get shuffled around, no harm done. Stretch the surge deployments to nine months and every possible shuffle leaves a gap. Nine months is where things stand. Ships that aren't due to deploy until 2029 are already being worn down by what's happening now, and in Washington nobody is planning around the problems that will land on a successor. Montgomery's answer isn't withdrawal. After paying this much, he argues, the move is to stay and win, and winning in his telling means wrecking the economy badly enough that the IRGC is stuck making choices it doesn't want. On the Houthis he wouldn't bother with destroyers: "you fly four B-2s over, release a thousand weapons". Bab el-Mandeb ought to be Europe's job. It can't do it. And there is no navy capacity left to send.

6d

Jolyon@jolyon

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Admiral Mark Montgomery on US Navy readiness

Fifteen months is what the US Navy has left before whoever wins the next election takes over a fleet that can't go anywhere. Admiral Mark Montgomery's description of the whole arrangement: three-card monte. Stop the war right away and the ships get shuffled around, no harm done. Stretch the surge deployments to nine months and every possible shuffle leaves a gap. Nine months is where things stand. Ships that aren't due to deploy until 2029 are already being worn down by what's happening now, and in Washington nobody is planning around the problems that will land on a successor. Montgomery's answer isn't withdrawal. After paying this much, he argues, the move is to stay and win, and winning in his telling means wrecking the economy badly enough that the IRGC is stuck making choices it doesn't want. On the Houthis he wouldn't bother with destroyers: "you fly four B-2s over, release a thousand weapons". Bab el-Mandeb ought to be Europe's job. It can't do it. And there is no navy capacity left to send.

6d