@not_a_charm🇺🇦🇷🇺 Can Ukraine get the land back if Russia’s army is still standing? The economic hits are real. Refining has plunged. Strikes on plants, depots and logistics have surged. August wheat shipments look near 2M tons, versus 5M-6M in recent years. Fuel tightens. Export cash thins. But none of that puts brigades into Melitopol. Russia still holds around 19-20% of Ukraine. Its 2026 gains are a fraction of 2025. In August, Kyiv even retook slightly more ground than Moscow seized. Slow is not gone. A large army can keep taking Donetsk one field at a time on less diesel. Burning a refinery changes the budget, but it doesn't automatically change the trench. The real question is whether economic pain ever becomes enough to force the retreat Russia still refuses to make. Source: Oxford Energy, ianbremmer / Writer: Lucas

@not_a_charm🇺🇦🇷🇺 Can Ukraine get the land back if Russia’s army is still standing? The economic hits are real. Refining has plunged. Strikes on plants, depots and logistics have surged. August wheat shipments look near 2M tons, versus 5M-6M in recent years. Fuel tightens. Export cash thins. But none of that puts brigades into Melitopol. Russia still holds around 19-20% of Ukraine. Its 2026 gains are a fraction of 2025. In August, Kyiv even retook slightly more ground than Moscow seized. Slow is not gone. A large army can keep taking Donetsk one field at a time on less diesel. Burning a refinery changes the budget, but it doesn't automatically change the trench. The real question is whether economic pain ever becomes enough to force the retreat Russia still refuses to make. Source: Oxford Energy, ianbremmer / Writer: Lucas